The Hoops Model Top Seeds Are…


The results from the Mike Watkins College Basketball Predict-o-later 5000 model (the MWCBP-5000) are in. Before I get to that, the MWPCB-5000 is designed to predict the field for the upcoming March Madness College Basketball tournament.

A picture of a basketball.

A picture of a basketball.

Using data through games completed on Sunday night, the MWCBP-5000 predicts these four teams to have the best chance of getting selected for the tournament (and defacto number one seeds) – in order:

1. Duke (MWCBP-5000 score: 32.0)
2. New Mexico (MWCBP-5000 score: 31.1)
3. Kansas (MWCBP-5000 score: 28.7)
4. Indiana (MWCBP-5000 score: 27.7)

The only surprise there, to me, is New Mexico. However, they are 10-2 in their last 12 games, have three wins over RPI top 25 teams and the third strongest schedule in the country, and have the same record as Kansas and Duke (25-4).

I am going to do a full data refresh at the conclusion of tonight’s games, and take my first shot at projecting the entire field on Wednesday.


About Michael Watkins

Mike Watkins is the founder of Hurricane Analytics, a private organization specializing in data visualization and predictive analytics, with a special focus on tropical meteorology. They analyze complex meteorological data and communicate that information in easy-to-understand terms, to help clients prepare and anticipate the disruptive impact of Atlantic hurricanes.