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Tropical storm Dalila has formed in the eastern Pacific with winds expected at 40 MPH when the 5:00AM advisory is issued. The overnight guidance from the GFS and GFS ensembles have shifted a little south of the previous forecast, especially at days 4 and 5.
Tropical Depression 4-E has formed in the eastern Pacific. Maximum sustained winds are 35MPH, but some strengthening is expected and it could be a tropical storm by Sunday. Here is an initial look at the track guidance. Interesting loop from the GFDL ensemble mean, the GFS and GFS ensembles are in pretty good agreement – […]
Here is a quick chart showing model and official forecast track error rates for Cosme. Overall the models and the Hurricane Center performed well, and while the GFDL ensemble model mean wasn’t run very often, the results were also encouraging.
Cosme is weakening in the eastern Pacific and as of Thursday afternoon, it is barely hanging on as a tropical storm. Cool Pacific ocean temperatures and a relatively stable environment have put a lid on the storm. However, as you can see form the graphic, Official forecasts, like they were with Barry, have been south […]