Why Dalila May Be Moving South Tomorrow

For a few days now many of the global models have been showing tropical storm Dalila moving southwest (even though forecasts have showing it move to the west). Why? A large tropical disturbance is developing in the far eastern Pacific. The environmental flow around this new system (which should be an Invest on Tuesday), combined with a robust ridge of high pressure to the north of Dalila – will combine to create an unusual steering pattern – forcing the relatively small Dalila to the southwest. Here’s a graphic showing the current computer model forecasts for Dalila, as well as the disturbance developing to the southeast:

Tropical Storm Dalila and a New Disturbance in the East Pacific

A new tropical disturbance could help send Dalila southward starting Tuesday.

If most of the global models are correct, Dalila will begin to move southwestward on Tuesday as the new, and much larger system to the southeast starts to develop.

About Michael Watkins

Mike Watkins is the founder of Hurricane Analytics, a private organization specializing in data visualization and predictive analytics, with a special focus on tropical meteorology. They analyze complex meteorological data and communicate that information in easy-to-understand terms, to help clients prepare and anticipate the disruptive impact of Atlantic hurricanes.