Update on Possible Coastal System (9/25/2013 6:00PM EDT)

The European model continues a broad area of low pressure developing off of the US east coast by Saturday of this week. In fact, this is the 4th run of the model in a row showing a similar solution over the course of the last two days. However, when comparing the most recent run with previous solutions, the developing low looks less concentrated and less tropical. It appears the odds of a tropical or even subtropical system developing are decreasing, and instead a non-tropical low may develop.

In addition, the last two runs of the Euro have trended eastward and are close to the current and previous runs of the GFS model, showing the system being caught by a trough of low pressure and sweeping out toward the northeast early next week. Should this solution verify, whatever does develop would not directly impact the US coast.

There is still some uncertainty surrounding the exact details of this system. The models could trend toward a more tropical-looking low in later runs or the steering pattern could evolve differently from the current solution set.

I’ll post another update should things change, otherwise this is the last update for this system from Hurricane Analytics…


Updated: 9/25/2013 6:00PM EDT

About Michael Watkins

Mike Watkins is the founder of Hurricane Analytics, a private organization specializing in data visualization and predictive analytics, with a special focus on tropical meteorology. They analyze complex meteorological data and communicate that information in easy-to-understand terms, to help clients prepare and anticipate the disruptive impact of Atlantic hurricanes.