Category Archives: Atlantic


Why Ending CSU Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts is a Setback for Tropical Meteorology

Back in late 1994, not too long after tropical storm Gordon dropped a ton of rain on us here in south Florida, I got a fax from my friend, Felix DeOsa, who worked at the National Hurricane Center. The title of the article – “Outlook for 1995 Season – Bad” That was my first exposure […]


NHC Advisory 28, Expected Surge Exceedence for Sandy 1 day before Landfall

Is Visualizing the Hurricane Problem Solvable?

“Superstorm” Sandy took the northeast by surprise last fall. However, it shouldn’t have. The unusual path, size and intensity of Sandy were well anticipated by computer forecast models and storm specialists at the National Hurricane Center. Note the graphic here showing the Official Forecast envelope (all forecasts issued) for Sandy – they were very tightly […]


3-7 Day Tropical Genesis Potential (9/25/2013)

Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Mid Range Outlook: 48 to 168 hours (3-7 days) Hurricane Analytics Updated at 9:00AM EDT 9/25/2013 Outlook Date/Time Range: Friday at 5:00AM EDT 9/27/2013 to Tuesday 5:00AM EDT 10/1/2013 Note: This is an experimental (beta) forecast product…graphics coming soon. Forecast Event: Coastal/Subtropical or Tropical Storm Development Indicated By: Computer Models […]


5 Day Euro Forecast as of 9/24/2013 at 12Z

Possible System in the Atlantic by the Weekend (Mid-Range Outlook)

Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Mid Range Outlook: 48 to 168 hours (3-7 days) Hurricane Analytics Date/Time Range: Thursday at 5:00PM EDT 9/25/2013 to Monday 5:00PM EDT 9/30/2013 Note: This is an experimental (beta) forecast product Forecast Event: Coastal/Subtropical or Tropical Storm Development Indicated By: Computer Models Possible Impacts: Elevated storm surge and tropical storm […]


Intensity and Model Tracks for Invest 97L

Intensity forecasts for Invest 97L approaching the Lesser Antilles. While the environment is currently unfavorable for development, note the ramp up in the 72+ hour time period for the statistical models. It’s important to keep in mind this system is just an invest at this time, and is not of concern for significant development in […]

Intensity Forecasts for 97L