The remnants of Dorian continue to fade in the Atlantic. Very strong upper-level winds have split the wave in half, separating the former mid-level center from the area of lower surface pressures. The result: a weakening tropical wave with little chance for redevelopment. The NHC forecast calls for a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation, […]
For a few days now many of the global models have been showing tropical storm Dalila moving southwest (even though forecasts have showing it move to the west). Why? A large tropical disturbance is developing in the far eastern Pacific. The environmental flow around this new system (which should be an Invest on Tuesday), combined […]
Tropical storm Dalila has formed in the eastern Pacific with winds expected at 40 MPH when the 5:00AM advisory is issued. The overnight guidance from the GFS and GFS ensembles have shifted a little south of the previous forecast, especially at days 4 and 5.
Tropical Depression 4-E has formed in the eastern Pacific. Maximum sustained winds are 35MPH, but some strengthening is expected and it could be a tropical storm by Sunday. Here is an initial look at the track guidance. Interesting loop from the GFDL ensemble mean, the GFS and GFS ensembles are in pretty good agreement – […]