For a few days now many of the global models have been showing tropical storm Dalila moving southwest (even though forecasts have showing it move to the west). Why? A large tropical disturbance is developing in the far eastern Pacific. The environmental flow around this new system (which should be an Invest on Tuesday), combined […]
Tropical storm Dalila has formed in the eastern Pacific with winds expected at 40 MPH when the 5:00AM advisory is issued. The overnight guidance from the GFS and GFS ensembles have shifted a little south of the previous forecast, especially at days 4 and 5.
Tropical Depression 4-E has formed in the eastern Pacific. Maximum sustained winds are 35MPH, but some strengthening is expected and it could be a tropical storm by Sunday. Here is an initial look at the track guidance. Interesting loop from the GFDL ensemble mean, the GFS and GFS ensembles are in pretty good agreement – […]
As of 11:00AM EDT this morning, Cosme has become better organized and is now a hurricane. Here is the latest model plot and official forecast: After battling some unfavorable mid-level wind shear, the hurricane has moved into a better environment and is expected to continue strengthening for another 24-36 hours. After that time, it will […]