Tag Archives: hurricane


Why Ending CSU Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts is a Setback for Tropical Meteorology

Back in late 1994, not too long after tropical storm Gordon dropped a ton of rain on us here in south Florida, I got a fax from my friend, Felix DeOsa, who worked at the National Hurricane Center. The title of the article – “Outlook for 1995 Season – Bad” That was my first exposure […]


Tropical Storm Dalila and a New Disturbance in the East Pacific

Why Dalila May Be Moving South Tomorrow

For a few days now many of the global models have been showing tropical storm Dalila moving southwest (even though forecasts have showing it move to the west). Why? A large tropical disturbance is developing in the far eastern Pacific. The environmental flow around this new system (which should be an Invest on Tuesday), combined […]


Tropical Depression 4-E Forms in the East Pacific

Tropical Depression 4-E has formed in the eastern Pacific. Maximum sustained winds are 35MPH, but some strengthening is expected and it could be a tropical storm by Sunday. Here is an initial look at the track guidance. Interesting loop from the GFDL ensemble mean, the GFS and GFS ensembles are in pretty good agreement – […]

Tropical Depression Four in the Eastern Pacific

Hurricane Cosme in the East Pacific

Cosme Now a Hurricane in the East Pacific

As of 11:00AM EDT this morning, Cosme has become better organized and is now a hurricane. Here is the latest model plot and official forecast: After battling some unfavorable mid-level wind shear, the hurricane has moved into a better environment and is expected to continue strengthening for another 24-36 hours. After that time, it will […]


Tropical Storm Cosme in the Eastern Pacific

Tropical storm Cosme remains on track. It is likely to become a hurricane on Tuesday as it moves in a general west-northwest direction and away from land, and is expected to strengthen through Wednesday before weakening later in the week as it moves over cooler waters. Here’s an updated model/forecast map, showing the current position […]

Tropical Storm Cosme in the Eastern Pacific