Tag Archives: Hurricane Forecasts

Either actual storms on the map and what it could do in the future, or what could be coming up in the tropics.

3 Things to Watch in the Atlantic MDR This Hurricane Season

The Atlantic Main Development Region (often referred to as the MDR) is often cited in hurricane seasonal outlooks as a critical area to watch. This area, bounded in a box from 10-20N and 20-85W, is called the Main Development Region because, generally speaking, that’s where most westward moving tropical waves develop into tropical cyclones during […]


NHC Forecast Swath for Sandy (2012)

Long-Term Visualization of Hurricane Forecasts 3

When a storm is active in the Atlantic, the latest and greatest hurricane forecasts from the National Hurricane Center get almost all of the attention, whether from media, enthusiasts or other meteorologists. However, the most “current” forecast doesn’t always tell the full story. The Hurricane Center doesn’t like to make big forecast track shifts from […]

Can “K-Means” Analysis Help Anticipate Future Hurricane Season Activity? 1

The Atlantic hurricane basin has the highest year to year variability, in terms of tropical cyclone frequency and strength, of any basin in the world. Dry air from Africa, a large amount of land (relative to other basins), indirect impacts from the Pacific ocean and many other factors make seasonal activity predictions difficult. Much work […]

“Out of the Cone” Does Not Mean “All Clear”

Predicting the movement of a hurricane is far from a perfect science. The process is filled with unknowns. The exact center and direction of movement of a storm is hard to determine (especially when storms are moving very slowly), yet errors in estimating movement and speed are two of the biggest contributors to track forecast […]

3 Untrue Hurricane Model Myths 2

Even degreed broadcast meteorologists struggle to understand the complexities of the computer models used to forecast track and intensity of hurricanes. Here are three common myths that I have heard, and why they aren’t true. Myth 1: The US government “delays” the public GFDL model data to give forecasters more time. If you follow the […]