The remnants of Dorian continue to fade in the Atlantic. Very strong upper-level winds have split the wave in half, separating the former mid-level center from the area of lower surface pressures. The result: a weakening tropical wave with little chance for redevelopment. The NHC forecast calls for a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation, […]
Water vapor satellite imagery from this morning showing Dorian becoming cut off from the moisture feed flowing in from the south (pink arrows) as more and more of the circulation is getting surrounded by dry air (yellow arrows). This interruption in moisture return from the south is likely contributing to the weakening we’ve seen since […]
For a few days now many of the global models have been showing tropical storm Dalila moving southwest (even though forecasts have showing it move to the west). Why? A large tropical disturbance is developing in the far eastern Pacific. The environmental flow around this new system (which should be an Invest on Tuesday), combined […]
Tropical storm Dalila has formed in the eastern Pacific with winds expected at 40 MPH when the 5:00AM advisory is issued. The overnight guidance from the GFS and GFS ensembles have shifted a little south of the previous forecast, especially at days 4 and 5.
Tropical Depression 4-E has formed in the eastern Pacific. Maximum sustained winds are 35MPH, but some strengthening is expected and it could be a tropical storm by Sunday. Here is an initial look at the track guidance. Interesting loop from the GFDL ensemble mean, the GFS and GFS ensembles are in pretty good agreement – […]